Bet O The Week 9-11/7

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 2-0
SIDES 2-0
TOTALS 0-0

Week 7 SD+3 W
Week 8 SD-6 W

SD cashed as they demolished a hapless Raider team as expected. SD this week faces NO, a team with a capable offense unlike SD's 2 previous opponents. Not interested in getting involved in finding out if SD defense is all that. SD offense should roll. Going by the old axiom that defense covers the spread and not being sure about the SD defense, I'll pass on SD this week.

Philly has scored more points and given up less points than Pittsburgh.

The Eagles have turned the ball over 6 times this season compared to the Steelers 8.

Pittsburgh has more takeaways,17 than the Eagles 14 and sport a net T.O. differential of +9 to the Eagles +8

Philly has the better FG kicker and the more experienced QB, who can take off from the pocket.

Here is what Bettis said after defeating N.E.

"I think we beat them at their own game in the sense that we took advantage of the turnovers," Steelers running back Jerome Bettis said. "In their streak, they've led the turnover ratio by far. Every team turned the ball over. We were able to jump out in front of them because of the turnovers."


From USA today:

Teams with the higher ratio of takeaways to turnovers are 68-14 (.829) this season. 2004

A year ago, those with the better protective numbers were 166-40 (.806). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Over the last 10 seasons, teams that are superior in turnover ratio have a .783 winning percentage, with 1,546 wins against 427 losses and three ties. <o></o>

<o>I like Philly here as I think they will win the T.O battle. </o>
<o></o><o>PHILLY PKM :toast:</o>

 

[kayaman]

Hey, occam, I was wondering what you were going to go with. I mean there were a lot of options, I thought. I like your thinking with the Philly pick, especially since they are at only a pick. I just wonder what you think about the run game for the two teams. Last week Bettis looked real strong running over the Pats, and Duce is going up against his former team, so you know he's looking for a big game. Duce is avearging around 100 y/gm while the Philly run D is allowing about 113y/gm. However, I don't know how much of an affect this may have.

Also, what detered you from picking Seattle. I remember last week you said you aren't to keen on their inconsistency, and I agree. Since last season they haven't been the best road team. However they are playing the Niners, and if my memory serves me correct S. Alexander saw the end zone 5 times the last time they played. Don't think that it can happen again, but you never know.

I hope you don't mind my getting involved in your picks so much. I'm not trying to tell you how to pick, just trying to learn how you do it.

If you'd could, email me at jrez_81@hotmail.com

Thanks

 

[OccamsRazor]

All comments pro or con welcome that is why we are all here to help each other out Kaya.

After decades of Capping football, I have completly streamlined my approach. Used to keep detailed records on every team, every move, every stat. But no matter how much info. I had the outcome was still left up to TOs. My team would outgain and outplay their opponent by 400 yds and still lose due to turnovers. Now I just play who I think is going to win the TO battle and align myself with 80% probabilities.

80% probabilties is a place that I like to go fishing for winners.

Good Luck

 

[SHAWN GOTTI]

OCCAM, NICE WRITE-UP BUT.... IMA STEELER FAN!! GOOD LUCK WITH ALL YOUR OTHER PLAYS THOUGH!!:howdy:

 

[OccamsRazor]

Westbrook playing Sunday. Money continues to pour in on Steelers. Eagles from -1.5 to pk +103. A good sign here.

 

[ACE-ACE]

WE BOTH PUT HIGH VALUE ON T/O.....THE NEW PLAYER ....IF WE CAN TEACH YOU ANYTHING.....WATCH THE T/O


I ENJOY YOUR WRITE UPS

 

[BadAz117]

Love those EAGLES!!

and the over (44) looks pretty good too!

FLY EAGLES FLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[kayaman]

Hey, occam thanks. I have pulled the trigger on the eagles. Just wondering what you think about the Seahawks and the Giants this weekend.

Good Luck

 

[OccamsRazor]

I don't bother with inconsistent teams Kaya.

Any opinion on inconsistent teams is by nature inconsistent. Flip a coin

 

[kayaman]

Alright thanks, go Philly!

 

[winbet]

Occams,
Nice to see you back, I get throughly pissed when people like you go missing because you have posted a couple of losers. I have decided not to post YTD stats, that way good info gets through without the pressure. Look forward to your posts.

 

[Hanzandfranz]

Even more reason to like Philly....

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Duce Staley (hamstring, knee) tweaked his hamstring during practice Friday, Nov. 5, and has been downgraded to questionable for Week 9. Staley, who was previously listed as probable due to a knee injury, is likely to be a game-time decision for Pittsburgh this weekend.

 

[heart222]

Ocams is there a site that spits out the tornover + - or are you looking at box scores? Thanks for your selections and by the way nice call on Lakers other night. thanks heart222

 

[OccamsRazor]

Winbet you posted:"Nice to see you back, I get throughly pissed when people like you go missing because you have posted a couple of losers."

I post here because it keeps me honest. Meaning I post everything I bet so that everyone can see what I'm doing and it helps me from chasing. There is nothing like public scrutiny to keep you in check. I think I have chased about 4 times since I started posting here in 3 years. I noted that the bets were chases. If I go cold, I will stop posting and take a break, we all do that. I discriminate on my picks, quality over quantity for the short term. To those that say you will make more money if you bet 300 bets at 53% rather than 50 bets at 55%. I say I will bet 300 bets, just that I won't bet 5 bets on a NFL weekend, just 1 or 2 and it will take me longer to reach 300, ( maybe 2 years or more later, but I will get there and it will be at 55%).

Hanzandfranz: Thanks for the update.

heart222: My favorite is NFL.com. It breaks it all down intercepts, fumbles. takeaways, plus, minus. Everything you want to know about TOs

 

[brewers7]

OccamsRazor:

Just curious about that turnover stat you posted:

Is that record straight up or ATS?...

I imagine it is straight up, because I simply CANNOT imagine an ATS trend that strong over that period of time...

Thanx...

 

[Deb12]

Hello Hello...

Before you guys start to follow this guy blindly I suggest that you do a little homework for yourselves, please do not misconstrue this posting as "Bashing" because it is not meant to be that way.

However, being a veteran handicapper myself that does this for a living and also being a former book that was busted many many years ago and decided to go a different route, I can tell this...there is NO sure fire "Silver Bullet" that will produce winners on a consistent basis.

I don't really post much on this forum or on many others that I frequent because posting takes to much time and time is money when trying to absorb as much info as possible with regard to the weeks upcoming matchups, these forums are a good place for professionals such as myself to visit because we can gain some insight as to what the "General Public" is thinking as well as listening to what locals from selected cities that have teams that you are contemplating wagering on are saying.

For some reason I felt compelled to reply to this hogwash about wagering ONLY on games in which one team has a better T/O ratio + or - than the team they are facing....

Why not wager strickly on team that out-rush their opponents on average? Or why not wager strickly on teams that out-yard opponents in terms of total yardage per contest? Why not wager strickly on teams that have better "Hidden Yardage" stats which are derived from total return yardage?

Or better yet, why not wager strickly on the basis of the name of the teams involved? For example...Washington is playing Detroit this week and everyone knows that Indians hunt, kill, and eat Lions, the same holds true to the Dallas/Cincy matchup because everyone knows that Cowboys have six-shooters that are much to have in a fight than a kitty cat that only has teeth and claws, then of course Oakland is playing Carolina this week and everyone knows that swords and muskets are better than an unarmed panther.

The above examples are meant to be silly in nature to show the silliness of the claim that making a wager based solely on one criteris is a silly thing to do and in the end will send you to the poor house, I've got news for you...Vegas was built on old ladies and silly gamblers that follow just systems, or just trends, or just this, or just that.

Getting back to the game in hand, the Steelers have the upper hand in this contest and should win by anywhere from 7 to 10 points, the orginal notion was that the eagles would win because they have a better seasonal T/O ratio....really?

Its all about "What have you done for me lately"....a look at the past four weeks of play for each team shows that the eagles turnovers versus the amount of turnovers committed by their opponents is 4 to 10 for a +6, meanwhile, the Steelers have committed 3 T/O's versus 9 of their opponents for a +6....sounds pretty even to me.

A deeper look into the same four games that we two teams have played shows that the eagles were actually beaten on the field of play according to the stats, meaning that although philly won on the score board that ALL FOUR opponents ( Balt, Cleve, Caro, and Chic ) won at least 2 of the following 3 major stats....First-downs, total net yardage, and TOP ( time of possession ).

Pittsburgh meanwhile not only won their past four outings on the score board but won the "Stat Wars" as well and actually played against the better competition as they defeated NE, Dallas, Cleve and Cincy.

The very best approach to handicapping is a balanced approach that takes into consideration many many factors and is not simply based on "Just this" or "Just that"...

Good luck today

Deb

For example

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Duce is NOT playing today per Eagles pregame show.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Brewers7: Its Straight up. and of course its not as simple as just picking the team with the better T. O.

Deb12: I do not consider your reply as bashing, all opinions welcome. Again this is not a "pick the team with the better T.O. and riches will follow simple-minded approach. I don't know where you got that impression. I simply pointed out that teams that win the TO battle win 80% of the games straight up and that ONE of a Cappers many questions should be, "Humh, who is most likely going to win the T.O. battle?" You can't predict T.Os but you can estimate.There are many many variables out there to consider. A Capper needs to have as many variables going his way as he can. Another variable is the team with the 100yd rusher wins in the 70-80 percentile SU Duce Dailey is innactive and Westbrook will play. Who is going to have the 100 yd rusher today?? There are no shortcuts to success in Capping.

Don't understimate the posters here they dont follow anyone blindly.

I post em, you bet em, if you like em.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Credit to Pitt as they jumped on us early like a mad dog and would'nt let go. Philly won TO battle but it was offset by Bettis running wild with way over 100 yds. Back at em next week.

 

[Deb12]

BUMP BUMP BUMP.....Thanks for raising my blood pressure as it caused me to wager an extra 100 on the Steelers who DOMINATED just as I said they would.

Don't mind me, but itsn't it GREAT to be right?

good luck to everyone